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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though analysts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.