Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in Gaza But Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian leadership meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump said he intended to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves White House without results
The frequently changing summit is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a truce and hostage release agreement in Gaza.
While making remarks in the North African country recently to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president benefited from a history of supporting the Israeli state since his first term, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and pausing arms shipments to the country - then to retreat in the face of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
Trump often boasts about his skill to meet and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any closer to a resolution.
Putin may actually be using Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia called the US president who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The following day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
However the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately urging the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – including land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a truce along present frontlines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail previously, Trump promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that concluding the war is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when neither side desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.